NFIB Optimism Index Falls Slightly Below 52-year Average

The latest Small Business Optimism Index released by the National Federation of Independent Business fell by six-tenths of a point in May, down to 95.3 which remains below the index’s 52-year average of 98.0.

At the same time, the NFIB’s Uncertainty Index rose three points from April up to 91 which remains well above its historical average of 68.

When looking at the numbers, NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkenberg says “despite the enthusiasm around A-I, the overall picture is divided with more small business owners struggling with significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices.”

Those higher fuel prices, in turn, present more of a challenge for small businesses to pass on to their customers creating a sense of uncertainty and making it difficult to plan ahead.

The full report can seen below:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from April to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly Jobs Report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index remained essentially flat, registering 100.3 in May. The current reading is below the 2025 average of 101.2 but still slightly above the historical average of 100.0. In May, a seasonally adjusted 29% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in May, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.

“AI investment spending has contributed to some excitement in the economy,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite the enthusiasm around AI, the overall picture is divided. More small business owners are struggling with significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices, which are more challenging for small businesses to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors.”

“The cost of running a small business is continuing to climb,” NFIB State Director Brad Jones said. “Main Street is feeling the pinch everywhere they turn, and so are their customers. That creates a sense of uncertainty that makes it difficult for business owners to plan ahead.”

Key findings include:

• The Employment Index remained essentially flat in May, registering 100.3 in May after measuring 100.4 in April. This is the third consecutive month in which the Index has declined. The current reading is below the 2025 average of 101.2 but slightly above the historical average of 100.0.
• In May, job openings and hiring plans fell notably to the lowest levels in six years. Twenty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• A seasonally adjusted net 9% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 4 points from April, also marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• In May, 13% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since December 2016.
• Fourteen percent of business owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem, up 5 points from April and the highest reading in the survey’s history.
• Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point from April and the lowest level since March 2009.
• Reports of supply chain disruptions picked up in May, with a shift from those reporting no disruptions to those reporting mild or moderate disruptions. Seventy percent of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, up 6 points from April.
• In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up 7 points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022.
• Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 2 points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024. Inflation ranks as the second top problem.

Click here to view the entire NFIB SBET Report.

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in May 2026.